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DARWIN

R1 3:09 PM R2 5:05 PM R3 5:30 PM R4 5:55 PM R5 6:20 PM

Race 2

5:05 PM

1200m · 5 runners

🏁 Result

1st PHYSICAL GRAFFITI 💡 Saver

2nd TIME TO BACA ⭐ Best Bet

3rd MIAMI BABY

4th KING AKEED

〰️ Best Bet placed — TIME TO BACA ran a place (win bet missed)

✅ Saver won — PHYSICAL GRAFFITI finished 1st

Dominant favourite Lean

Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.

TIME TO BACA W $1.60

win ⭐ Best Bet

Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.

PHYSICAL GRAFFITI P $1.95

Saver · place

Saver if the favourite is rolled.

Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.

Full field & ratings ›

Runner	Barrier	Win	Place	Our rate
5. TIME TO BACA FAV TOP RATED	5	$1.60	$1.16	$2.30
4. KESSLER	3	$6.50	$2.15	$6.06
6. MIAMI BABY	2	$6.50	$2.15	$6.41
3. PHYSICAL GRAFFITI	6	$5.50	$1.95	$6.73
2. KING AKEED	4	$12.00	$3.30	$10.36

Favourite record at DARWIN ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.60) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav price	Win	Place	Races
1.50–1.99 this race	65%	90%	20*
2.00–2.49	45%	90%	31*
2.50–3.49	38%	74%	34*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice. *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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