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NEWCASTLE

R1 1:05 PM R2 1:40 PM R3 2:15 PM R4 2:50 PM R5 3:30 PM R6 4:10 PM R7 4:45 PM

Race 4

2:50 PM
1300m · 7 runners
🏁 Result
1st EMBRACE THE WIND
2nd LE TROISIR (NZ)
3rd ALIGNED 📍 Place Pick
4th PERLE DE CHOCOLAT
✅ Place bet landed — ALIGNED ran a place
Weak favourite Thin
Weak favourite. Don't back it to win — place or pass.
1
ALIGNED P $1.50
place only
Weak favourite in a competitive field. Our model's top-rated runner for a place.
3
PRINCE HARRISON W $4.80
Saver · small win
Our model rates this one higher than its price on form — a saver, not a sure thing.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
1. ALIGNED FAV TOP RATED 7 $2.80 $1.50 $4.03
5. EMBRACE THE WIND 2 $3.20 $1.70 $4.80
3. PRINCE HARRISON 5 $4.80 $2.25 $5.43
10. FIRE 'N' STONE 3 $9.50 $3.70 $8.23
7. PERLE DE CHOCOLAT 6 $10.00 $3.80 $9.17
12. YES I WIN (NZ) 1 $21.00 $5.75 $14.95
2. LE TROISIR (NZ) 9 $13.00 $4.60 $16.14
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.80) sits in the 2.50–3.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 56% 84% 25*
2.00–2.49 39% 84% 38*
2.50–3.49 this race 39% 64% 44*
3.50–4.99 30% 57% 30*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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