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NEWCASTLE

R1 12:15 PM R2 12:50 PM R3 1:25 PM R4 2:00 PM R5 2:35 PM R6 3:15 PM R7 3:55 PM R8 4:35 PM

Race 4

2:00 PM
1200m · 8 runners
🏁 Result
1st THE MAGIC MAN
2nd UNJUST
3rd BETTER BLOOM
4th PEACE AT LAST ⭐ Best Bet
❌ Unplaced — PEACE AT LAST didn't feature
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
2
PEACE AT LAST W $1.95
win ⭐ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.
6
ARCTIC BRIGHT (NZ) P $1.30
Saver · place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
2. PEACE AT LAST FAV TOP RATED 4 $1.95 $1.14 $3.32
6. ARCTIC BRIGHT (NZ) 8 $4.00 $1.30 $4.95
5. THE MAGIC MAN 10 $4.80 $1.36 $5.79
4. BETTER BLOOM 2 $8.50 $2.05 $6.88
7. MISS STEFFI 3 $19.00 $3.20 $14.78
9. UNJUST 5 $41.00 $4.80 $21.16
1. MY COUNTRY BOY 6 $31.00 $4.00 $27.02
3. IRULAN 1 $91.00 $6.50 $37.65
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.95) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 this race 56% 84% 25*
2.00–2.49 39% 84% 38*
2.50–3.49 39% 64% 44*
3.50–4.99 30% 57% 30*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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