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NEWCASTLE

R1 1:10 PM R2 1:45 PM R3 2:20 PM R4 2:55 PM R5 3:30 PM R6 4:10 PM R7 4:50 PM

Race 5

3:30 PM
1150m · 7 runners
🏁 Result
1st TROUNCE 📍 Place Pick
2nd CUPID'S KISS
3rd GIRLS WEEKEND
4th ARDONAUGH
✅ Place bet — won outright — TROUNCE finished 1st
Competitive Lean
Market and model agree — a genuine top pick. Win or place.
4
TROUNCE W $2.15·P $1.28
win or place
Market and model agree on this runner — a genuine top pick. Win or cover with place.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
4. TROUNCE FAV TOP RATED 2 $2.15 $1.28 $3.00
1. GIRLS WEEKEND 1 $4.20 $1.90 $4.73
3. CUPID'S KISS 6 $5.50 $2.25 $6.04
5. SHIRLEY'S TRIBUTE (NZ) 5 $6.00 $2.35 $8.17
6. ARABIAN MELODY 4 $11.00 $3.60 $9.37
2. ARDONAUGH 7 $61.00 $12.00 $29.74
9. THE FINAL SAY 8 $81.00 $16.00 $38.04
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.15) sits in the 2.00–2.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 56% 84% 25*
2.00–2.49 this race 39% 84% 38*
2.50–3.49 39% 64% 44*
3.50–4.99 30% 57% 30*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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