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PAKENHAM

R1 4:15 PM R2 4:45 PM R3 5:15 PM R4 5:45 PM R5 6:15 PM R6 6:45 PM R7 7:15 PM R8 7:45 PM

Race 7

7:15 PM
1400m · 11 runners
📍 Our record & guide for Southside Racing Pakenham ›
🏁 Result
1st ALERO 📍 Place Pick
2nd LULU DARLING
3rd MARLION'S DREAM
4th HOLA AMIGOS
✅ Place bet — won outright — ALERO finished 1st
Weak favourite Thin
Weak favourite. Don't back it to win — place or pass.
1
ALERO P $1.28
place only
Weak favourite in a competitive field. Our model's top-rated runner for a place.
9
MERIMBULA W $7.50
Saver · small win
Our model rates this one higher than its price on form — a saver, not a sure thing.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
1. ALERO FAV TOP RATED 3 $2.60 $1.28 $3.91
4. FREAK OF NATURE 12 $4.80 $1.65 $7.03
10. MARLION'S DREAM 8 $5.50 $1.85 $7.27
9. MERIMBULA 1 $7.50 $2.25 $8.64
8. VADERLEE 10 $8.50 $2.30 $9.07
6. HOLA AMIGOS 14 $15.00 $3.40 $14.59
11. LULU DARLING 4 $20.00 $4.00 $14.62
14. AUSSIEAUSSIEAUSSIE 2 $34.00 $5.50 $24.21
13. WARMOSA 6 $61.00 $7.00 $32.94
5. STARSPANGLED BABY 11 $151.00 $13.00 $65.65
12. OCEAN'S JEN (NZ) 5 $201.00 $19.00 $69.41
Favourite record at PAKENHAM ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.60) sits in the 2.50–3.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 61% 78% 41*
2.00–2.49 36% 72% 39*
2.50–3.49 this race 39% 77% 75
3.50–4.99 11% 50% 36*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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