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BALLARAT

R1 12:30 PM R2 1:00 PM R3 1:30 PM R4 2:00 PM R5 2:30 PM R6 3:00 PM R7 3:30 PM R8 4:00 PM

Race 5

2:30 PM

1200m · 8 runners

🏁 Result

1st MALLEE GOLD

2nd FONDLED 💡 Saver

3rd WARPARTY ⭐ Best Bet

4th THUNDER PARK

〰️ Best Bet placed — WARPARTY ran a place (win bet missed)

✅ Saver placed — FONDLED ran a place

Dominant favourite Lean

Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.

WARPARTY W $1.90

win ⭐ Best Bet

Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.

FONDLED P $2.05

Saver · place

Saver if the favourite is rolled.

Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.

Full field & ratings ›

Runner	Barrier	Win	Place	Our rate
2. WARPARTY FAV TOP RATED	6	$1.90	$1.16	$3.18
10. FONDLED	10	$8.00	$2.05	$8.16
4. ALOYSIUS	8	$8.00	$2.05	$8.44
1. TURN UP THE NIGHT (NZ)	9	$8.00	$2.05	$8.69
9. MALLEE GOLD	7	$10.00	$2.25	$9.52
6. JOLTIN' JOE	4	$13.00	$2.60	$11.76
8. THUNDER PARK	5	$14.00	$2.80	$12.93
3. TORLAAH	2	$20.00	$3.40	$16.16

Favourite record at BALLARAT ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins.

Fav price	Win	Place	Races
2.50–3.49	39%	64%	44*
3.50–4.99	31%	72%	29*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice. *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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