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TOWNSVILLE

R1 12:24 PM R2 12:59 PM R3 1:34 PM R4 2:10 PM R5 2:50 PM R6 3:25 PM R7 4:00 PM R8 4:40 PM

Race 3

1:34 PM

1300m · 9 runners

🏁 Result

1st AIRWAVES

2nd HELL OF A BENTLEY

3rd PARCH ⭐ Best Bet

4th ELLIS BEACH

〰️ Best Bet placed — PARCH ran a place (win bet missed)

Dominant favourite Lean

Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.

PARCH W $1.95

win ⭐ Best Bet

Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.

MR SUGAR DADDY P $1.50

Saver · place

Saver if the favourite is rolled.

Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.

Full field & ratings ›

Runner	Barrier	Win	Place	Our rate
1. PARCH FAV TOP RATED	4	$1.95	$1.18	$3.19
5. MR SUGAR DADDY	2	$4.80	$1.50	$5.65
4. HELL OF A BENTLEY	3	$5.00	$1.50	$6.41
7. AIRWAVES	5	$12.00	$2.60	$11.41
2. ELLIS BEACH	7	$13.00	$2.80	$11.89
8. MISS KIYOSHI	10	$19.00	$3.50	$15.20
9. DIAMOND LUCY	8	$20.00	$3.70	$15.40
6. SAVVY THINKER	6	$41.00	$5.25	$31.49
10. GINGER MICK	9	$91.00	$7.50	$52.59

Favourite record at TOWNSVILLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.95) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav price	Win	Place	Races
1.50–1.99 this race	48%	84%	25*
2.00–2.49	52%	68%	25*
2.50–3.49	27%	65%	55*
3.50–4.99	22%	43%	23*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice. *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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