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LAUNCESTON

R1 5:00 PM R2 5:30 PM R3 6:00 PM R4 6:30 PM R5 7:00 PM R6 7:30 PM R7 8:02 PM R8 8:36 PM

Race 4

6:30 PM
2100m · 7 runners
🏁 Result
1st STAR PERFORMER
2nd MERLIN BEACH (NZ) ⭐ Best Bet
3rd SIR JAG
4th MISS NIAGARA (NZ)
〰️ Best Bet placed — MERLIN BEACH (NZ) ran a place (win bet missed)
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
5
MERLIN BEACH (NZ) W $1.45
win ⭐ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.
4
LORD HEAR US P $2.05
Saver · place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
5. MERLIN BEACH (NZ) FAV TOP RATED 4 $1.45 $1.12 $2.05
4. LORD HEAR US 1 $5.50 $2.05 $6.24
3. SIR JAG 7 $7.00 $2.30 $7.55
6. MISS NIAGARA (NZ) 8 $18.00 $4.40 $14.90
2. PIPING WILLOW 6 $20.00 $4.60 $15.78
8. STAR PERFORMER 5 $31.00 $5.50 $19.88
1. GEEGEES ROYAL DUKE 2 $41.00 $6.00 $25.75
Favourite record at LAUNCESTON

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
2.00–2.49 27% 86% 22*
2.50–3.49 37% 66% 35*
3.50–4.99 14% 57% 21*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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