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NEWCASTLE

R1 1:05 PM R2 1:40 PM R3 2:15 PM R4 2:50 PM R5 3:30 PM R6 4:10 PM R7 4:50 PM

Race 3

2:15 PM
1350m · 8 runners
🏁 Result
1st WARBRECCAN ⭐ Best Bet
2nd ERNIEGY 💡 Saver
3rd ELLOFABY
4th ZO FRILLING
✅ Best Bet won — WARBRECCAN finished 1st
✅ Saver placed — ERNIEGY ran a place
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
2
WARBRECCAN W $1.80
win ⭐ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.
1
ERNIEGY P $1.32
Saver · place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
2. WARBRECCAN FAV TOP RATED 4 $1.80 $1.12 $2.67
1. ERNIEGY 5 $4.40 $1.32 $5.85
9. ZO FRILLING 2 $8.00 $1.95 $7.91
3. COUSIN CHUCK 7 $10.00 $2.15 $9.91
7. GYRA 6 $15.00 $2.80 $14.28
6. ELLOFABY 1 $17.00 $3.00 $15.09
4. ENVISIONED 3 $26.00 $3.70 $19.61
5. COOLRIVER FERGIE 9 $41.00 $4.60 $25.27
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.80) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 this race 56% 84% 25*
2.00–2.49 39% 84% 38*
2.50–3.49 39% 64% 44*
3.50–4.99 30% 57% 30*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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