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NEWCASTLE

R1 1:05 PM R2 1:40 PM R3 2:15 PM R4 2:50 PM R5 3:30 PM R6 4:10 PM R7 4:50 PM

Race 4

2:50 PM
2100m · 10 runners
🏁 Result
1st ARE YOU KIDDING ⭐ Best Bet
2nd EXTERNUS
3rd FIREALARM
4th DEVILS DAUGHTER
✅ Best Bet won — ARE YOU KIDDING finished 1st
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
1
ARE YOU KIDDING W $1.55
win ⭐ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.
2
BLAZING GURU (NZ) P $1.80
Saver · place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
1. ARE YOU KIDDING FAV TOP RATED 2 $1.55 $1.10 $2.50
2. BLAZING GURU (NZ) 5 $7.00 $1.80 $7.27
3. DEVILS DAUGHTER 4 $11.00 $2.35 $11.59
6. KEINBAH'S WARRIOR 3 $13.00 $2.50 $11.73
7. SNITZENEGGER 6 $13.00 $2.50 $12.02
9. FIREALARM 8 $16.00 $3.10 $13.71
10. ROBBED BY ROB 7 $26.00 $3.90 $20.75
4. EXTERNUS 1 $41.00 $5.00 $28.73
11. SUPERCRISP 11 $34.00 $4.60 $29.54
8. BOLD ROUGE 9 $126.00 $8.50 $58.50
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.55) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 this race 56% 84% 25*
2.00–2.49 39% 84% 38*
2.50–3.49 39% 64% 44*
3.50–4.99 30% 57% 30*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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