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NEWCASTLE

R1 12:15 PM R2 12:50 PM R3 1:25 PM R4 2:05 PM R5 2:40 PM R6 3:15 PM R7 3:50 PM R8 4:30 PM

Race 3

1:25 PM

900m · 7 runners

🏁 Result

1st CONFIDENTIALITY 💡 Saver

2nd CHARLINA ⭐ Best Bet

3rd MISS ORTH

4th CHARKA

〰️ Best Bet placed — CHARLINA ran a place (win bet missed)

✅ Saver won — CONFIDENTIALITY finished 1st

Dominant favourite Lean

Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.

CHARLINA W $1.90

win ⭐ Best Bet

Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.

CONFIDENTIALITY P $1.26

Saver · place

Saver if the favourite is rolled.

Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.

Full field & ratings ›

Runner	Barrier	Win	Place	Our rate
2. CHARLINA FAV TOP RATED	1	$1.90	$1.12	$2.89
3. CONFIDENTIALITY	7	$3.60	$1.26	$4.43
8. TRUCE	10	$8.50	$1.95	$7.53
4. CHARKA	4	$8.00	$1.80	$8.02
5. CRAIG'S ONE	2	$17.00	$2.80	$11.94
7. MISS ORTH	3	$19.00	$3.10	$14.11
10. THE MYSTERY GUY	5	$151.00	$8.50	$62.35

Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.90) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav price	Win	Place	Races
1.50–1.99 this race	56%	84%	25*
2.00–2.49	39%	84%	38*
2.50–3.49	39%	64%	44*
3.50–4.99	30%	57%	30*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice. *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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