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NEWCASTLE

R1 12:15 PM R2 12:50 PM R3 1:25 PM R4 2:05 PM R5 2:40 PM R6 3:15 PM R7 3:50 PM R8 4:30 PM

Race 4

2:05 PM
1250m · 7 runners
🏁 Result
1st LIGHTNING GLORY
2nd ERIN JO (NZ) 📍 Place Pick
3rd AZURE ANGEL
4th BONDASONG
✅ Place bet landed — ERIN JO (NZ) ran a place
Competitive Lean
Market and model agree — a genuine top pick. Win or place.
3
ERIN JO (NZ) W $2.20·P $1.30
win or place
Market and model agree on this runner — a genuine top pick. Win or cover with place.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
3. ERIN JO (NZ) FAV TOP RATED 2 $2.20 $1.30 $3.23
1. LIGHTNING GLORY 6 $2.60 $1.34 $3.49
6. AZURE ANGEL 7 $6.50 $2.50 $7.11
8. SALMA'S STAR 5 $11.00 $3.80 $9.05
4. GREYT THINKER 4 $15.00 $4.60 $11.71
2. BONDASONG 8 $31.00 $6.50 $19.08
10. VALENTINO PRINCE 3 $151.00 $23.00 $66.30
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.20) sits in the 2.00–2.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 56% 84% 25*
2.00–2.49 this race 39% 84% 38*
2.50–3.49 39% 64% 44*
3.50–4.99 30% 57% 30*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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