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PAKENHAM

R1 4:15 PM R2 4:45 PM R3 5:15 PM R4 5:45 PM R5 6:15 PM R6 6:45 PM R7 7:15 PM R8 7:45 PM

Race 4

5:45 PM
2550m · 8 runners
📍 Our record & guide for Southside Racing Pakenham ›
🏁 Result
1st ARDASHIR (FR) ⭐ Best Bet
2nd ERUPT
3rd ANGEL FEET (NZ) 💡 Saver
4th NOBLE FALCON (NZ)
✅ Best Bet won — ARDASHIR (FR) finished 1st
✅ Saver placed — ANGEL FEET (NZ) ran a place
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
1
ARDASHIR (FR) W $1.50
win ⭐ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.
4
ANGEL FEET (NZ) P $1.32
Saver · place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
1. ARDASHIR (FR) FAV TOP RATED 6 $1.50 $1.05 $2.45
4. ANGEL FEET (NZ) 2 $5.50 $1.32 $5.93
3. ZINOVATION (NZ) 8 $6.00 $1.36 $6.38
7. NOBLE FALCON (NZ) 10 $18.00 $2.60 $12.91
6. ERUPT 3 $20.00 $2.90 $13.63
8. SIVA TAU 5 $26.00 $3.30 $15.30
2. HE'S A TIGER 1 $71.00 $5.50 $32.41
10. THE LONG MOVER 9 $126.00 $7.00 $49.28
Favourite record at PAKENHAM ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.50) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 this race 61% 78% 41*
2.00–2.49 36% 72% 39*
2.50–3.49 39% 77% 75
3.50–4.99 11% 50% 36*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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