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MORNINGTON

R1 11:50 AM R2 12:20 PM R3 12:55 PM R4 1:30 PM R5 2:05 PM R6 2:40 PM R7 3:20 PM R8 4:00 PM R9 4:35 PM R10 5:10 PM

Race 3

12:55 PM

1200m · 10 runners

📍 Our record & guide for Mornington Racecourse ›

🏁 Result

1st NOT SURPRISED 💡 Saver

2nd HARMONETT

3rd ACTUALITY ⭐ Best Bet

4th BODY OF VENUS

〰️ Best Bet placed — ACTUALITY ran a place (win bet missed)

✅ Saver won — NOT SURPRISED finished 1st

Dominant favourite Lean

Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.

ACTUALITY W $2.00

win ⭐ Best Bet

Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.

NOT SURPRISED P $2.10

Saver · place

Saver if the favourite is rolled.

Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.

Full field & ratings ›

Runner	Barrier	Win	Place	Our rate
7. ACTUALITY FAV TOP RATED	2	$2.00	$1.22	$3.44
6. NOT SURPRISED	5	$7.00	$2.10	$8.35
3. BODY OF VENUS	3	$11.00	$2.65	$9.88
1. CLAYMORE MINE	7	$9.00	$2.35	$10.49
2. GELLHORN	1	$11.00	$2.70	$11.58
12. CRICKWOOD (GB)	6	$16.00	$3.60	$12.34
9. DRONE ATTACK	9	$18.00	$3.80	$14.83
4. EGERTON	10	$21.00	$4.20	$17.42
8. HARMONETT	11	$19.00	$3.90	$18.84
11. TRAK CHILLER	4	$34.00	$5.50	$21.03

Favourite record at MORNINGTON ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins.

Fav price	Win	Place	Races
2.50–3.49	29%	83%	24*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice. *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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