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NEWCASTLE

R1 1:00 PM R2 1:35 PM R3 2:10 PM R4 2:50 PM R5 3:25 PM R6 4:05 PM R7 4:40 PM

Race 4

2:50 PM
1250m · 10 runners
🏁 Result
1st CHATTERLEY ⭐ Best Bet
2nd FARSET
3rd SAMAKA 💡 Saver
4th STAR HALF
✅ Best Bet won — CHATTERLEY finished 1st
✅ Saver placed — SAMAKA ran a place
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
11
CHATTERLEY W $1.85
win ⭐ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.
8
SAMAKA P $1.55
Saver · place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
11. CHATTERLEY FAV TOP RATED 10 $1.85 $1.14 $2.78
8. SAMAKA 14 $5.50 $1.55 $6.06
4. FARSET 13 $7.50 $1.95 $7.77
9. STAR HALF 2 $9.00 $2.15 $9.52
2. ANUZOU 6 $10.00 $2.25 $10.60
10. THE CHAMPION 5 $31.00 $4.40 $23.00
6. NONNO'S POWER 9 $31.00 $4.40 $26.98
3. CHECKS'N'BALANCES 3 $71.00 $6.00 $34.50
13. LADY WINSTON 4 $126.00 $9.00 $52.26
12. FLYING GISELLE 7 $126.00 $8.50 $55.57
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.85) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 this race 56% 84% 25*
2.00–2.49 39% 84% 38*
2.50–3.49 39% 64% 44*
3.50–4.99 30% 57% 30*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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