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NEWCASTLE

R1 12:10 PM R2 12:50 PM R3 1:25 PM R4 2:00 PM R5 2:35 PM R6 3:10 PM R7 3:45 PM R8 4:25 PM

Race 3

1:25 PM
1250m ยท 8 runners
๐Ÿ Result
1st ALPHARD โญ Best Bet
2nd INCREMENTAL
3rd THE BREAKERS
4th SPIV ๐Ÿ’ก Saver
โœ… Best Bet won โ€” ALPHARD finished 1st
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price โ€” but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
1
ALPHARD W $1.95
win โญ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite โ€” market and model in agreement.
5
SPIV P $1.28
Saver ยท place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests โ€” a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings โ€บ
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
1. ALPHARD FAV TOP RATED 3 $1.95 $1.12 $3.38
5. SPIV 6 $3.40 $1.28 $4.52
3. INCREMENTAL 1 $9.00 $2.00 $7.65
9. THE BREAKERS 2 $9.00 $2.05 $8.72
7. MOSSROCKET 4 $15.00 $2.70 $12.88
4. REFRESHMENT 8 $19.00 $3.20 $14.57
8. SCOISH MALOISH 7 $26.00 $3.70 $16.16
2. BATTLE SCARS 9 $61.00 $5.25 $34.29
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE โ€บ

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results โ€” the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.95) sits in the 1.50โ€“1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50โ€“1.99 this race 56% 84% 25*
2.00โ€“2.49 39% 84% 38*
2.50โ€“3.49 39% 64% 44*
3.50โ€“4.99 30% 57% 30*

Descriptive track record from settled results โ€” independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence โ€” they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
Bet responsibly ยท 18+ ยท GambleAware.