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NEWCASTLE

R1 12:35 PM R2 1:10 PM R3 1:50 PM R4 2:25 PM R5 3:05 PM R6 3:40 PM R7 4:20 PM

Race 3

1:50 PM

1500m · 11 runners

🏁 Result

1st DAWN OR DUSK

2nd SOLID (NZ) 💡 Saver

3rd CLANWILLIAM ⭐ Best Bet

4th NONNO'S POWER

〰️ Best Bet placed — CLANWILLIAM ran a place (win bet missed)

✅ Saver placed — SOLID (NZ) ran a place

Dominant favourite Lean

Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.

CLANWILLIAM W $1.95

win ⭐ Best Bet

Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.

SOLID (NZ) P $1.90

Saver · place

Saver if the favourite is rolled.

Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.

Full field & ratings ›

Runner	Barrier	Win	Place	Our rate
1. CLANWILLIAM FAV TOP RATED	6	$1.95	$1.20	$3.16
7. SOLID (NZ)	10	$6.50	$1.90	$7.87
8. SUR NOVA CENTAURI (USA)	1	$8.50	$2.25	$8.26
3. FLYING PARTY	11	$8.00	$2.05	$8.84
11. DAWN OR DUSK	8	$12.00	$2.75	$12.20
5. NONNO'S POWER	5	$12.00	$2.70	$14.57
10. BRITISH GEM	3	$26.00	$4.40	$16.56
9. TITAN OF FURY	12	$31.00	$4.80	$22.54
4. HOUSE OF DRAGON	13	$31.00	$4.75	$24.84
12. GEMTIKI (NZ)	7	$126.00	$13.00	$68.03
6. PRINCE TOMMY	9	$151.00	$15.00	$84.98

Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.95) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav price	Win	Place	Races
1.50–1.99 this race	56%	84%	25*
2.00–2.49	39%	84%	38*
2.50–3.49	39%	64%	44*
3.50–4.99	30%	57%	30*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice. *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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