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DARWIN

R1 3:00 PM R2 3:34 PM R3 4:14 PM R4 4:48 PM R5 5:25 PM

Race 4

4:48 PM
1200m · 8 runners
🏁 Result
1st KING AKEED
2nd BRAZEN BON
3rd FIELDS OF COURAGE (NZ) 📍 Place Pick
4th POLARISING
✅ Place bet landed — FIELDS OF COURAGE (NZ) ran a place
Competitive Lean
Market and model agree — a genuine top pick. Win or place.
4
FIELDS OF COURAGE (NZ) W $2.45·P $1.26
win or place
Market and model agree on this runner — a genuine top pick. Win or cover with place.
6
VILLA ROYALE W $8.50
Form view · saver 9.5% above market on form
Form model rates this runner above its market price. Track+distance: 50% (4 starts) · Recent form: x7x2
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
4. FIELDS OF COURAGE (NZ) FAV TOP RATED 6 $2.45 $1.26 $3.81
1. BRAZEN BON 7 $5.00 $1.60 $6.78
6. VILLA ROYALE 4 $8.50 $2.30 $8.31
3. KING AKEED 3 $7.00 $2.05 $8.51
5. POLARISING 5 $8.00 $2.20 $8.94
7. DAMO DAYZ 1 $8.50 $2.30 $9.12
8. MISS BLACK DIAMOND 8 $18.00 $3.60 $14.24
2. IKNOWHATYOUREDOING 2 $17.00 $3.40 $16.50
Favourite record at DARWIN ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.45) sits in the 2.00–2.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 64% 84% 25*
2.00–2.49 this race 43% 81% 47*
2.50–3.49 37% 67% 52*
3.50–4.99 31% 59% 29*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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