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NEWCASTLE

R1 11:50 AM R2 12:30 PM R3 1:05 PM R4 1:40 PM R5 2:15 PM R6 2:50 PM R7 3:28 PM R8 4:05 PM

Race 3

1:05 PM
1400m · 8 runners
🏁 Result
1st AETHELWULF 📍 Place Pick
2nd MONOTONE
3rd GRIDLOCK
4th SOVEREIGN WAVE
✅ Place bet — won outright — AETHELWULF finished 1st
Competitive Lean
Market and model agree — a genuine top pick. Win or place.
1
AETHELWULF W $2.35·P $1.24
win or place
Market and model agree on this runner — a genuine top pick. Win or cover with place.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
1. AETHELWULF FAV TOP RATED 7 $2.35 $1.24 $3.96
13. GRIDLOCK 9 $4.40 $1.40 $4.98
11. TITAN OF FURY 2 $5.50 $1.65 $6.46
7. MONOTONE 4 $5.50 $1.65 $7.26
3. AUDACIOUSLY FRANK 11 $14.00 $3.00 $12.24
16. LIFE IS A SHIRAZ 3 $20.00 $3.70 $13.53
9. STAR OF WINSTON (NZ) 5 $20.00 $3.60 $18.37
15. SOVEREIGN WAVE 6 $34.00 $4.80 $22.73
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.35) sits in the 2.00–2.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 56% 85% 34*
2.00–2.49 this race 36% 77% 44*
2.50–3.49 40% 68% 53*
3.50–4.99 28% 50% 36*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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