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BALLARAT

R1 12:30 PM R2 1:05 PM R3 1:40 PM R4 2:15 PM R5 2:50 PM R6 3:25 PM R7 4:00 PM R8 4:40 PM

Race 3

1:40 PM

1200m · 11 runners

🏁 Result

1st HARRY DE LAD

2nd EXPENSIVE TASTE ⭐ Best Bet

3rd BLACKJACK 💡 Saver

4th VERY FAMOUS

〰️ Best Bet placed — EXPENSIVE TASTE ran a place (win bet missed)

✅ Saver placed — BLACKJACK ran a place

Dominant favourite Lean

Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.

EXPENSIVE TASTE W $1.55

win ⭐ Best Bet

Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.

BLACKJACK P $1.36

Saver · place

Saver if the favourite is rolled.

Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.

Full field & ratings ›

Runner	Barrier	Win	Place	Our rate
11. EXPENSIVE TASTE FAV TOP RATED	6	$1.55	$1.10	$2.30
1. BLACKJACK	1	$4.80	$1.36	$5.64
2. HARRY DE LAD	11	$6.50	$1.65	$7.01
9. VERY FAMOUS	8	$26.00	$4.00	$18.91
6. FORWARD HO	10	$19.00	$3.20	$19.65
7. LADY COURREGE	9	$31.00	$4.50	$24.61
8. PERLAGE	7	$34.00	$4.40	$26.08
5. FLYING NIC	2	$61.00	$5.75	$39.25
10. SPECIFIC OUTCOME	3	$81.00	$6.75	$73.50
12. SPIRIT OF NICCONI	14	$126.00	$9.00	$75.52
14. LE GLACON	12	$151.00	$11.00	$90.60

Favourite record at BALLARAT ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.55) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav price	Win	Place	Races
1.50–1.99 this race	56%	89%	27*
2.00–2.49	55%	72%	29*
2.50–3.49	34%	64%	73
3.50–4.99	22%	59%	49*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice. *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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