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NEWCASTLE

R1 12:20 PM R2 12:55 PM R3 1:35 PM R4 2:10 PM R5 2:45 PM R6 3:20 PM R7 3:55 PM R8 4:35 PM

Race 4

2:10 PM
1250m · 9 runners
🏁 Result
1st SPHERE ⭐ Best Bet
2nd SAVOONGA
3rd DAME DIVIDEND
4th MAREMOTO
✅ Best Bet won — SPHERE finished 1st
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
9
SPHERE W $1.50
win ⭐ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.
6
MARK OF GLORY P $1.85
Saver · place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
9. SPHERE FAV TOP RATED 6 $1.50 $1.02 $2.56
6. MARK OF GLORY 9 $8.50 $1.85 $8.63
11. MAREMOTO 3 $8.50 $1.90 $8.86
1. BETTER BLOOM 1 $13.00 $2.40 $10.73
3. DAME DIVIDEND 10 $23.00 $3.70 $14.70
10. WILTSHIRE LASS 2 $21.00 $3.50 $15.83
8. SAVOONGA 4 $17.00 $3.00 $16.44
2. BLIXEN 8 $31.00 $4.00 $19.62
7. ON HER MERITS 7 $41.00 $4.80 $22.69
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.50) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 this race 57% 86% 28*
2.00–2.49 38% 85% 39*
2.50–3.49 40% 67% 48*
3.50–4.99 29% 53% 34*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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