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TOOWOOMBA

R1 5:00 PM R2 5:34 PM R3 6:07 PM R4 6:39 PM R5 7:12 PM R6 7:43 PM R7 8:14 PM R8 8:45 PM

Race 1

5:00 PM
870m · 8 runners
📍 Our record & guide for The Toowoomba Turf Club ›
🏁 Result
1st TOUCH BASE ⭐ Best Bet
2nd ON THE CUSP
3rd LADY ESTELLE 💡 Saver
4th DISCO DIAMOND
✅ Best Bet won — TOUCH BASE finished 1st
✅ Saver placed — LADY ESTELLE ran a place
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
1
TOUCH BASE W $1.75
win ⭐ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.
5
LADY ESTELLE P $1.30
Saver · place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
1. TOUCH BASE FAV TOP RATED 2 $1.75 $1.03 $2.79
5. LADY ESTELLE 6 $4.60 $1.30 $4.52
6. ON THE CUSP 3 $6.50 $1.50 $5.84
3. BURUM BEAU 12 $10.00 $2.05 $11.93
8. ZHIVAGO BELLA 10 $18.00 $3.20 $14.46
4. KANNA KAMUI 8 $23.00 $3.60 $23.39
7. DISCO DIAMOND 5 $81.00 $6.75 $35.08
2. JUST JIMMY 11 $51.00 $5.25 $40.42
Favourite record at TOOWOOMBA ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.75) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 this race 48% 83% 23*
2.00–2.49 32% 68% 34*
2.50–3.49 28% 63% 57*
3.50–4.99 22% 48% 27*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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