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DARWIN

R1 12:22 PM R2 12:57 PM R3 1:34 PM R4 2:14 PM R5 2:52 PM R6 3:27 PM R7 4:05 PM R8 4:45 PM R9 5:19 PM R10 6:00 PM

Race 1

12:22 PM
1200m · 7 runners
🏁 Result
1st RIVKIN
2nd CONVINCEBILITY 💡 Saver
3rd LUCKY FORTUNA
4th TIME TO BACA
❌ Unplaced — BON'S YOUR BACK didn't feature
✅ Saver placed — CONVINCEBILITY ran a place
Open race Thin
No standout. Play a place, take a saver, or pass.
2
BON'S YOUR BACK P $1.65
place only
Open race with no standout. Our model's top pick for a place bet.
1
CONVINCEBILITY W $6.50
Saver · small win
Our model rates this one higher than its price on form — a saver, not a sure thing.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
2. BON'S YOUR BACK FAV TOP RATED 7 $3.20 $1.65 $4.92
8. LUCKY FORTUNA 2 $4.80 $2.25 $6.10
4. STARZAM 3 $5.50 $2.50 $6.92
1. CONVINCEBILITY 4 $6.50 $2.80 $7.18
6. TIME TO BACA 5 $9.00 $3.70 $8.25
7. THE FINAL WORD 8 $8.00 $3.30 $8.62
3. RIVKIN 6 $9.50 $3.80 $8.96
Favourite record at DARWIN ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($3.20) sits in the 2.50–3.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 64% 84% 25*
2.00–2.49 43% 81% 47*
2.50–3.49 this race 37% 69% 51*
3.50–4.99 30% 59% 27*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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