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EAGLE FARM

R1 12:33 PM R2 1:08 PM R3 1:43 PM R4 2:18 PM R5 2:53 PM R6 3:28 PM R7 4:03 PM R8 4:38 PM

Race 4

2:18 PM
1400m · 8 runners
📍 Our record & guide for Lauren Abbott Racing ›
🏁 Result
1st GORBACHEV
2nd TOO MANY THOUGHTS 📍 Place Pick
3rd PUFF 'N' HARRY
4th LAST COMMAND 💡 Saver
✅ Place bet landed — TOO MANY THOUGHTS ran a place
Weak favourite Thin
Weak favourite. Don't back it to win — place or pass.
5
TOO MANY THOUGHTS P $1.22
place only
Weak favourite in a competitive field. Our model's top-rated runner for a place.
1
LAST COMMAND W $6.50
Saver · small win
Our model rates this one higher than its price on form — a saver, not a sure thing.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
5. TOO MANY THOUGHTS FAV TOP RATED 1 $2.65 $1.22 $3.79
7. PUFF 'N' HARRY 9 $4.80 $1.50 $5.77
4. FREELAND 3 $5.00 $1.50 $5.94
1. LAST COMMAND 4 $6.50 $1.85 $7.45
2. NAVAL TRADER 6 $11.00 $2.60 $10.90
3. GORBACHEV 7 $11.00 $2.60 $11.36
9. RING BEARER 2 $34.00 $5.25 $20.53
8. BECAMO 5 $51.00 $6.50 $31.79
Favourite record at EAGLE FARM ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.65) sits in the 2.50–3.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 60% 87% 30*
2.00–2.49 41% 76% 59*
2.50–3.49 this race 25% 59% 118
3.50–4.99 16% 49% 73

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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