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HAWKESBURY

R1 12:45 PM R2 1:20 PM R3 1:55 PM R4 2:35 PM R5 3:10 PM R6 3:50 PM R7 4:25 PM R8 5:00 PM

Race 4

2:35 PM
1300m · 8 runners
🏁 Result
1st SPARKLING FIRE ⭐ Best Bet
2nd SPUD GUN
3rd ROEBUCK PLANE
4th THE AGENT
✅ Best Bet won — SPARKLING FIRE finished 1st
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
1
SPARKLING FIRE W $1.75
win ⭐ Best Bet
Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.
8
ESQUIRE P $1.24
Saver · place
Saver if the favourite is rolled.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
1. SPARKLING FIRE FAV TOP RATED 7 $1.75 $1.02 $2.69
8. ESQUIRE 5 $3.80 $1.24 $5.00
12. ROEBUCK PLANE 6 $8.00 $1.80 $7.39
7. TAHURANGI 3 $11.00 $2.25 $11.34
11. TRIPLE SEVEN 8 $17.00 $3.00 $12.30
2. THE AGENT 2 $17.00 $2.90 $14.40
6. SPUD GUN 4 $31.00 $4.20 $23.20
5. LUCKY MONKEY 1 $201.00 $10.00 $92.04
Favourite record at HAWKESBURY ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.75) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 this race 57% 83% 23*
2.00–2.49 36% 80% 25*
2.50–3.49 18% 64% 45*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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