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GRAFTON

R1 1:20 PM R2 1:55 PM R3 2:35 PM R4 3:10 PM R5 3:45 PM R6 4:20 PM R7 4:55 PM

Race 3

2:35 PM

2200m · 6 runners

🏁 Result

1st AYASAKI

2nd MAHUIKA MAROI (NZ) 💡 Saver

3rd AURORA EFFECT ⭐ Best Bet

4th RIGHTEOUS

〰️ Best Bet placed — AURORA EFFECT ran a place (win bet missed)

✅ Saver placed — MAHUIKA MAROI (NZ) ran a place

Dominant favourite Lean

Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.

AURORA EFFECT W $1.80

win ⭐ Best Bet

Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.

MAHUIKA MAROI (NZ) P $1.40

Saver · place

Saver if the favourite is rolled.

Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.

Full field & ratings ›

Runner	Barrier	Win	Place	Our rate
6. AURORA EFFECT FAV TOP RATED	5	$1.80	$1.14	$2.62
8. MAHUIKA MAROI (NZ)	4	$3.50	$1.40	$3.65
3. RIGHTEOUS	1	$5.00	$2.00	$5.48
1. AYASAKI	8	$7.50	$2.65	$7.89
2. MORE YOU THINK	6	$81.00	$13.00	$41.00
4. SIR ZINO (NZ)	3	$201.00	$17.00	$88.85

Favourite record at GRAFTON ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.80) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav price	Win	Place	Races
1.50–1.99 this race	60%	88%	25*
2.00–2.49	37%	83%	30*
2.50–3.49	27%	66%	41*
3.50–4.99	21%	45%	29*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice. *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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