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BALLARAT

R1 12:55 PM R2 1:30 PM R3 2:00 PM R4 2:30 PM R5 3:00 PM R6 3:30 PM R7 4:00 PM R8 4:30 PM R9 5:00 PM

Race 3

2:00 PM
1200m · 12 runners
🏁 Result
1st PURGATORIO
2nd BRILLIANT BULL ANT
3rd KEEN OBSERVER 📍 Place Pick
4th STARK VARG
✅ Place bet landed — KEEN OBSERVER ran a place
Weak favourite Thin
Weak favourite. Don't back it to win — place or pass.
11
KEEN OBSERVER P $1.34
place only
Weak favourite in a competitive field. Our model's top-rated runner for a place.
5
EGYPTIAN THORN W $9.00
Saver · small win
Our model rates this one higher than its price on form — a saver, not a sure thing.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
11. KEEN OBSERVER FAV TOP RATED 10 $2.80 $1.34 $4.48
13. PURGATORIO 9 $3.90 $1.55 $5.33
6. GENOMIC 8 $7.50 $2.40 $9.61
5. EGYPTIAN THORN 6 $9.00 $2.65 $10.66
8. APOCALYPSE 3 $10.00 $2.80 $11.35
14. STARK VARG 12 $13.00 $3.60 $14.04
10. CORE BUSINESS 4 $23.00 $4.80 $18.39
2. BRILLIANT BULL ANT 5 $23.00 $4.60 $21.26
4. CALL ME CHARLIE 11 $26.00 $5.00 $23.35
12. PERFECT DISMOUNT 1 $34.00 $6.25 $24.83
9. CLASSIC HARRY 2 $51.00 $7.25 $29.09
1. BLACK ACES 13 $126.00 $14.00 $75.88
Favourite record at BALLARAT ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.80) sits in the 2.50–3.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 52% 83% 29*
2.00–2.49 47% 69% 36*
2.50–3.49 this race 35% 66% 88
3.50–4.99 24% 60% 55*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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