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NEWCASTLE

R1 1:00 PM R2 1:35 PM R3 2:10 PM R4 2:50 PM R5 3:25 PM R6 4:05 PM R7 4:40 PM R8 5:20 PM

Race 7

4:40 PM

1500m · 10 runners

🏁 Result

1st FULLY LIT 💡 Saver

2nd I'MINTOWIN (NZ)

3rd MR MILLER (NZ) ⭐ Best Bet

4th MATIAS

〰️ Best Bet placed — MR MILLER (NZ) ran a place (win bet missed)

✅ Saver won — FULLY LIT finished 1st

Dominant favourite Lean

Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.

MR MILLER (NZ) W $1.85

win ⭐ Best Bet

Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.

FULLY LIT P $1.55

Saver · place

Saver if the favourite is rolled.

Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.

Full field & ratings ›

Runner	Barrier	Win	Place	Our rate
12. MR MILLER (NZ) FAV TOP RATED	11	$1.85	$1.07	$2.81
8. FULLY LIT	10	$5.50	$1.55	$6.85
9. I'MINTOWIN (NZ)	9	$6.50	$1.75	$7.23
3. HELLSING (IRE)	5	$15.00	$3.10	$13.75
13. MATIAS	8	$18.00	$3.50	$14.24
1. TAVI TIME (NZ)	14	$16.00	$3.20	$16.22
2. VIVY AIR	12	$18.00	$3.40	$18.43
11. GOLDEN CROSS	6	$41.00	$5.50	$21.07
6. EL CASTELLO	4	$41.00	$5.50	$26.01
14. TAINUI	2	$201.00	$13.00	$68.80

Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.85) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav price	Win	Place	Races
1.50–1.99 this race	53%	80%	40*
2.00–2.49	42%	79%	48*
2.50–3.49	38%	71%	66
3.50–4.99	28%	50%	40*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice. *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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