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CANBERRA

R1 12:45 PM R2 1:20 PM R3 1:55 PM R4 2:35 PM R5 3:10 PM R6 3:45 PM R7 4:25 PM R8 5:05 PM

Race 6

3:45 PM

1300m · 9 runners

🏁 Result

1st FIRST ASSAULT

2nd MACHRIHANISH 💡 Saver

3rd HELLO G'DAY (NZ) ⭐ Best Bet

4th DRAGON PORT

〰️ Best Bet placed — HELLO G'DAY (NZ) ran a place (win bet missed)

✅ Saver placed — MACHRIHANISH ran a place

Dominant favourite Lean

Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.

HELLO G'DAY (NZ) W $1.50

win ⭐ Best Bet

Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.

MACHRIHANISH P $1.30

Saver · place

Saver if the favourite is rolled.

Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.

Full field & ratings ›

Runner	Barrier	Win	Place	Our rate
11. HELLO G'DAY (NZ) FAV TOP RATED	8	$1.50	$1.02	$2.23
12. MACHRIHANISH	7	$5.00	$1.30	$6.26
1. FIRST ASSAULT	4	$8.50	$1.80	$8.66
13. MOROSINI	14	$13.00	$2.50	$12.39
3. ROY KELTON	13	$23.00	$3.75	$16.56
2. GROUNDCOVER	2	$26.00	$4.00	$20.02
6. REBEL BLAZE	11	$31.00	$4.25	$22.48
4. BABY CAN CAN	9	$61.00	$6.25	$40.90
16. DRAGON PORT	3	$91.00	$7.50	$61.17

Favourite record at CANBERRA ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.50) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav price	Win	Place	Races
1.50–1.99 this race	45%	80%	20*
2.00–2.49	23%	62%	26*
2.50–3.49	28%	76%	50*
3.50–4.99	24%	64%	25*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice. *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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