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LAUNCESTON

R1 6:30 PM R2 7:00 PM R3 7:30 PM R4 8:00 PM R5 8:30 PM R6 9:00 PM R7 9:30 PM R8 10:00 PM

Race 4

8:00 PM

1400m · 4 runners

🏁 Result

1st ALPINE FURY 💡 Saver

2nd BELLSPROUT (NZ)

3rd THICKSKINNED ⭐ Best Bet

4th SNOW EAGLE

〰️ Best Bet placed — THICKSKINNED ran a place (win bet missed)

✅ Saver won — ALPINE FURY finished 1st

Dominant favourite Lean

Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.

THICKSKINNED W $1.95

win ⭐ Best Bet

Clear, well-supported favourite — market and model in agreement.

ALPINE FURY P $0.00

Saver · place

Saver if the favourite is rolled.

Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.

Full field & ratings ›

Runner	Barrier	Win	Place	Our rate
3. THICKSKINNED FAV TOP RATED	1	$1.95	$0.00	$2.61
1. ALPINE FURY	6	$3.20	$0.00	$3.64
4. BELLSPROUT (NZ)	3	$4.60	$0.00	$4.45
6. SNOW EAGLE	4	$12.00	$0.00	$8.54

Favourite record at LAUNCESTON ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.95) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav price	Win	Place	Races
1.50–1.99 this race	43%	83%	23*
2.00–2.49	32%	84%	25*
2.50–3.49	36%	68%	47*
3.50–4.99	16%	56%	25*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice. *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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