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DARWIN

R1 2:54 PM R2 3:29 PM R3 4:04 PM R4 4:39 PM R5 5:19 PM

Race 5

5:19 PM
1100m · 5 runners
🏁 Result
1st WARREGO 📍 Place Pick
2nd MISTIFYZOU
3rd BRAVE HERITAGE
4th MILK FOAM
✅ Place bet — won outright — WARREGO finished 1st
Competitive Lean
Model and market disagree — our top pick differs from the market favourite.
3
WARREGO W $2.60·P $1.28
win or place
Our model rates this runner above the market favourite on form. Worth a win or place play.
2
PRINCE OF SPARTA P $1.24
Saver · place
Market favourite as a place saver — the market likes this one even if our model is cooler.
Model and market disagree. Our top-rated runner isn't the market favourite — we rate a different runner ahead of it. A genuine difference of opinion, so tread carefully.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
3. WARREGO TOP RATED 3 $2.60 $1.28 $3.34
2. PRINCE OF SPARTA FAV 1 $2.30 $1.24 $3.43
5. MISTIFYZOU 5 $4.20 $1.75 $4.40
1. BRAVE HERITAGE 4 $12.00 $3.80 $8.91
4. MILK FOAM 2 $21.00 $5.50 $14.37
Favourite record at DARWIN ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.30) sits in the 2.00–2.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 60% 87% 30*
2.00–2.49 this race 43% 78% 51*
2.50–3.49 35% 66% 65
3.50–4.99 27% 61% 33*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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