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NEWCASTLE

R1 12:20 PM R2 12:55 PM R3 1:30 PM R4 2:05 PM R5 2:40 PM R6 3:34 PM R7 4:20 PM R8 4:54 PM

Race 8

4:54 PM
1900m · 7 runners
🏁 Result
1st SUMAC
2nd AGITA
3rd CAN'T RECALL ONE (NZ)
4th FALCON LAIR 💡 Saver
❌ Unplaced — LEICA STORM didn't feature
Weak favourite Thin
Weak favourite. Don't back it to win — place or pass.
2
LEICA STORM P $1.40
place only
Weak favourite in a competitive field. Our model's top-rated runner for a place.
1
FALCON LAIR W $14.00
Saver · small win
Our model rates this one higher than its price on form — a saver, not a sure thing.
Model agrees with the market. Our ratings and the price line up on the favourite — a consistent read, no hidden disagreement.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
2. LEICA STORM FAV TOP RATED 5 $2.70 $1.40 $3.77
6. SUMAC 2 $5.00 $2.35 $5.81
4. AGITA 6 $4.20 $2.05 $5.90
5. SAINT EMILION 1 $6.00 $2.65 $5.90
1. FALCON LAIR 4 $14.00 $4.75 $11.40
8. CAN'T RECALL ONE (NZ) 7 $16.00 $5.50 $13.08
3. FREDDIE BASSETT 3 $15.00 $4.80 $16.86
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.70) sits in the 2.50–3.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 50% 80% 44*
2.00–2.49 41% 80% 51*
2.50–3.49 this race 36% 68% 75
3.50–4.99 29% 52% 42*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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