Horse · Model vs Market
Where the model disagrees with the market, who's actually right? · 3207 settled runners
How to read this. Each runner is bucketed by edge = model prob − market prob.
The bottom row (Model ≫ market) is the value test: these are runners the model thinks
are far better than their price. If actual win% there is ≥ the model's predicted %, the
model's optimism is justified and there's an overlay edge. If actual is below it, the model is
just wrong where it's most confident. Sample matters — a result on under ~150 runners is
marked thin/noise; don't trust it until it's deep (the harness 48-runner edge that vanished at
1,128 is why). Analysis only, not betting advice.
Model vs market
behind 0.0007
| Disagreement bucket | Runners | Confidence |
Actual win% | Model% | Market% | Who's right | Flat ROI |
Model > market
model a bit keener than the market |
256 |
fair |
7.4% |
8.7% |
6.8% |
market ✓ |
-18.2% |
Agree
model and market within 1.5% |
2492 |
trustworthy |
5.7% |
7.2% |
6.6% |
market ✓ |
-28.9% |
Model < market
model a bit cooler than the market |
288 |
fair |
21.5% |
19.8% |
22.3% |
market ✓ |
-17.8% |
Model ≪ market
model thinks far worse than price — the lay test |
171 |
fair |
42.7% |
32.4% |
38.9% |
market ✓ |
-2.8% |