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The Honest Record
How our Horse calls actually performed · 238 settled races
Most tipping sites show you their winners and quietly forget the rest. We do the opposite:
here's every call, scored against the result — including where backing blindly loses money.
We'd rather you trust us than be impressed by us.
By race shape
Our call changes with the race. This shows whether each type of call held up —
and the stance we give for it.
Dominant favourite thin
we say back to win
51 races
Win 54.9%
Place 74.5%
Flat ROI -8.9%
Competitive noise
we say win or place
34 races
Win 32.4%
Place 79.4%
Flat ROI -25.6%
Weak favourite thin
we say place or pass
55 races
Win 36.4%
Place 69.1%
Flat ROI -3.4%
Open race thin
we say place, value, or pass
98 races
Win 26.5%
Place 58.2%
Flat ROI -0.6%
Read it like this: on Dominant favourite races we say back to win, and those win most
often. On Weak favourite and Open races we say don't back the favourite to
win — so the low win rate there is the call working, not failing: we steered you to place or pass.
Model vs market accuracy. Across 1,483 rated runners, our model's
probability error (Brier 0.0725) is
essentially level with the market's (0.0723). We match the market's
accuracy but don't claim to beat it — our edge is in how we frame the race, not in secret
better prices.
Our pledge. We will never hide a losing run, cherry-pick a hot week, or claim an edge the
numbers don't show. This page updates automatically from real results — good and bad. If a call
type stops working, you'll see it here first.
Sample tags: noise under 40 ·
thin 40+ ·
fair 120+ ·
solid 300+ races.