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The Honest Record

How our Horse calls actually performed · 358 settled races · Last 7 days
Today Last 7 days All time

Most tipping sites show you their winners and quietly forget the rest. We do the opposite: here's every call, scored against the result — including where backing blindly loses money. We'd rather you trust us than be impressed by us.

◎ Our Best Bets thin

Not every race — only the confidence plays we actually publish (the dominant-favourite calls on the Best Bets page and our Telegram channel), scored against the result. 76 sent live, 8 reconstructed from before the channel launched.

What we actually do: point you at the right races. Across all 358 races, blindly backing every favourite — versus following the 84 dominant-favourite races we actually flag as Best Bets.

WinPlace
Back every favourite, every race 36.0% 66.2%
Follow our Best Bets 47.6% 81.0%
The difference we make +11.6 pts +14.8 pts

Straight talk: that lift is better race selection, not better prices — we point you at the races where the favourite is genuinely solid, and tell you to pass the rest. No one profits flat-backing favourites to win (the market's too efficient, and on a level-stake win bet our published calls still run -20.1%). We show that because it's the honest, hardest test. The value isn't the flat win bet — it's knowing which races are worth your attention, a 81% place strike that anchors multis and exotics, and the discipline to pass the rest. Honesty over hype — every time.

These are the same confidence plays on the Best Bets page and broadcast free on Telegram. The full call — prices and stance — is on each race page for members.

36.0%
Market fav win
66.2%
Market fav place
-6.8%
Market fav flat ROI

"Market fav" = blindly backing the shortest-priced runner in every race (358 races) — the baseline our Best Bets are measured against above.

By race shape

Our call changes with the race. This shows whether each type of call held up — and the stance we give for it.

Dominant favourite thin we say back to win
Market fav: 71 races Win 52.1% Place 78.9% Flat ROI -15.2%
Our model pick: 71 races Win 52.1% Place 78.9% Flat ROI -15.2%
Today's dominant favourite races:
BALLARAT R1 12:00 PM › BALLARAT R3 1:00 PM ›
Competitive thin we say win or place
Market fav: 71 races Win 39.4% Place 77.5% Flat ROI -10.8%
Our model pick: 71 races Win 39.4% Place 77.5% Flat ROI -10.8%
Today's competitive races:
BALLARAT R2 12:30 PM › ALBURY R2 1:15 PM › See all 4 today ›
Weak favourite thin we say place or pass
Market fav: 70 races Win 37.1% Place 68.6% Flat ROI +0.2%
Our model pick: 70 races Win 35.7% Place 67.1% Flat ROI -3.5%
Today's weak favourite races:
BALLARAT R5 2:00 PM › ALBURY R6 3:40 PM ›
Open race fair we say place or pass
Market fav: 146 races Win 26.0% Place 53.4% Flat ROI -4.2%
Our model pick: 146 races Win 26.0% Place 52.7% Flat ROI -3.0%
Today's open race races:
ALBURY R1 12:40 PM › ALBURY R4 2:25 PM › See all 10 today ›

Read it like this: on Dominant favourite races we say back to win, and those win most often. On Weak favourite and Open races we say don't back the favourite to win — so the low win rate there is the call working, not failing: we steered you to place or pass.

Model vs market accuracy. Across 3,794 rated runners, our model's probability error (Brier 0.0747) is a fraction behind the market's (0.0735). We don't beat the market on raw prediction — almost nobody does — which is exactly why our calls lean on race structure and discipline rather than claiming to out-pick the price.
Our pledge. We will never hide a losing run, cherry-pick a hot week, or claim an edge the numbers don't show. This page updates automatically from real results — good and bad. If a call type stops working, you'll see it here first.

Sample tags: noise under 40 · thin 40+ · fair 120+ · solid 300+ races.

Calls reconstructed from settled results using the same engine the site runs live. Flat ROI = level-stake (1 unit) win bet, scored on settled results. "Market fav" backs the shortest-priced runner every race; "Our pick" backs our model's top-rated runner where the race was rated. Past performance is not a guarantee. Not betting advice · 18+ · GambleAware.